Trends and Decomposition of Wheat Production in Western Maharashtra

The study was aimed to investigate the production performance of wheat in western Maharashtra. The data of 20 years regarding area, production and productivity of wheat was made available through the secondary source for all the districts of the western Maharashtra region. The study period of 1996-97 to 2015-16 was split into two sub periods i.e. period-I (1996-97 to 2005-2006), period-II (2006-07 to 2015-16) and overall period. The growth rates were calculated using the exponential function. The instability in area, production, and productivity was measured with a coefficient of variation (CV) and Cuddy Della Valle’s Instability index. The relative contribution of area and yield to change in output was estimated by Minhas decomposition model. The district-wise analysis was carried out which resulted that, during the period-I and period-II, almost all districts in the western Maharashtra region registered negative growth including the region as a whole. The area and productivity showed stability in wheat crop in almost all the districts of western Maharashtra region. In the western Maharashtra region, among all the parametric models fitted to the area, production and productivity of wheat crop, the maximum R2 was observed in the case of cubic model in all the districts of Western Maharashtra region with the region as a whole. The region as a whole recorded 59 per cent which marked as the highest R2 in productivity as compared to area and production. The decomposition analysis for western Maharashtra region depicted the largest area effect on wheat production. It was also observed that for both periods the area effect was more pronounced than the yield effect and interaction effect. Hence, there is need for policy maker to formulate development-oriented policies and the researchers to design an investigative research activity for promoting a sustainable wheat production system in the region for expansion of area under wheat cultivation.